Meridian

• →Pakistan's deployment of significant military resources to Saudi Arabia draws Pakistani defense capacity away from its own borders, increasing vulnerability along the India-Pakistan Line of Control and in Balochistan, and deepening Islamabad's financial dependency on Gulf state subsidies.
• →Sustained air travel disruptions at Riyadh's airport reduce Saudi tourism and business travel revenue by an estimated 10-20% in the near term, undermining Vision 2030 diversification targets and deterring foreign direct investment in hospitality and entertainment sectors.
• →Full-scale war in Yemen, as characterized by the UN, triggers a surge in displacement and famine conditions, forcing humanitarian agencies to redirect resources from other crises (e.g., Sudan, Gaza), creating funding gaps elsewhere.
• →Escalation of Saudi-Houthi hostilities increases the risk premium on Gulf-origin crude, pushing Brent prices up 5-15% as markets price in potential supply disruption from one of the world's largest oil-producing regions.

Near-term: Within 1-3 months, Brent crude rises 5-15% on conflict risk premiums, and Saudi Arabia accelerates arms procurement from Pakistan and Türkiye, expanding the scope of existing defensive alliance commitments. Long-term: Over 2-5 years, chronic instability entrenches a Pakistan-Türkiye-Saudi military axis as a parallel security architecture to traditional US-led Gulf partnerships, while major energy importers in Asia and Europe accelerate contracts with non-Gulf producers to reduce exposure to Saudi supply risk.