Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Closed as US Launches Third Round of Strikes

What Happens Next

• →Global oil prices spike sharply within days as markets price in the loss of approximately 20% of global oil transit capacity, triggering emergency drawdowns from strategic petroleum reserves by major consuming nations.
• →Marine war risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf surge, increasing shipping costs across global trade and raising delivered energy prices even for non-Gulf supply routes due to knock-on demand.
• →Gulf oil-exporting states with limited pipeline bypass capacity (Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar) face near-total export disruption, concentrating revenue losses and creating fiscal pressure on those governments within weeks.

Near-term: Acute energy supply shock drives gasoline and diesel price increases in import-dependent economies (Europe, Japan, South Korea, India), fueling inflationary pressure and forcing central banks to weigh rate responses against recession risk. Long-term: The demonstrated vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz accelerates structural reorientation of global energy strategy — faster adoption of renewables, expansion of LNG infrastructure, and permanent forward-deployment of multinational naval forces in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea.