US Launches Second Defensive Strike on Iran in Three Days During Fragile Ceasefire

What Happens Next

• →Oil prices spike 10-20% within 1-3 months as insurers reprice tanker routes through the Strait of Hormuz and traders price in sustained supply disruption risk from the three-month conflict.
• →European and US policymakers diverge on Middle East strategy within 6-12 months, with the EU prioritizing de-escalation diplomacy while the US maintains a coercive posture, weakening transatlantic coordination on Iran sanctions enforcement.
• →Repeated US military strikes on Iranian sovereign territory accelerate a structural realignment over 2-5 years, with Gulf states hedging by deepening defense and energy partnerships with China and Russia to reduce dependence on US security guarantees.

Near-term: Oil prices spike sharply within 1-3 months as markets price in sustained conflict risk, raising global shipping insurance costs and feeding into headline inflation in import-dependent economies. Long-term: Gulf and Middle Eastern states accelerate security and economic diversification toward China and Russia over 2-5 years, eroding the US-centric regional order that has prevailed since the 1990s.