Trump Says US Will Leave Iran in Two to Three Weeks

What Happens Next

• →Oil futures spike 10-15% in the near term as no country or coalition has been identified to secure Strait of Hormuz transit, which handles roughly 20% of global petroleum trade.
• →Marine insurance premiums for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz rise sharply, increasing shipping costs and creating downstream pressure on refined fuel prices globally.
• →Saudi Arabia and the UAE accelerate defense procurement and initiate bilateral or GCC-led naval patrol arrangements to fill the US security vacuum in the Persian Gulf.
• →European governments intensify diplomatic engagement with Gulf states and potentially China to establish a multilateral framework for Strait of Hormuz security, driven by direct energy supply dependence.

Near-term: Oil futures rise 10-15% and Strait of Hormuz shipping insurance premiums surge as markets price in the absence of a defined successor security arrangement. Long-term: A multipolar Persian Gulf security architecture replaces US primacy, with Gulf states, China, and possibly India maintaining permanent naval presences, fundamentally altering global energy supply chain risk calculus.