Iran Rejects US 15-Point Ceasefire Plan, Issues Counterproposal Including Hormuz Control

What Happens Next

• →Oil prices spike 20-30% as Iran's explicit demand for Hormuz control and ongoing attacks on Gulf states signal imminent or active disruption to approximately 20% of global oil transit.
• →Global shipping insurance premiums for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman surge, forcing rerouting through longer alternatives such as the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days to Asia-Europe energy deliveries.
• →Gulf Cooperation Council states accelerate defense integration with the US and NATO partners, given direct Iranian strikes on their territory, with emergency arms procurement requests submitted within weeks.
• →European governments activate strategic petroleum reserves and invoke emergency energy-sharing agreements under IEA frameworks to stabilize domestic fuel markets amid supply uncertainty.

Near-term: Within 1-3 months, global oil benchmarks sustain prices above $120/barrel as Hormuz transit disruptions and war-risk insurance costs remove effective supply from the market. Strategic petroleum reserve drawdowns begin in Europe and Asia. Long-term: Over 2-5 years, the conflict catalyzes a permanent diversification of global energy supply chains away from Persian Gulf chokepoints, accelerating investment in non-Middle Eastern oil production, LNG infrastructure, and renewables as strategic hedges.