G7 Leaders Convene in Évian as Uncertain US-Iran Deal Dominates Summit Agenda

What Happens Next

• →Shipping and energy insurers reprice Strait of Hormuz transit risk upward as the failed summit signals no near-term multilateral security framework for the waterway, raising freight costs for Persian Gulf crude and LNG.
• →Lebanon-related provisions tied to the US-Iran memorandum stall without a finalized deal, prolonging Hezbollah's political leverage and delaying international reconstruction financing for Beirut.
• →European leaders, interpreting Trump's delayed arrival and limited summit ambitions as deprioritization, accelerate independent diplomatic channels with Tehran — particularly France, which already framed the agenda around its own regional interests.

Near-term: Within 1-3 months, Strait of Hormuz transit insurance premiums rise 15-25 basis points as underwriters price in the absence of any concrete multilateral security commitment from the summit. Long-term: Over 2-5 years, the G7 format loses functional relevance as a decision-making body, with bilateral and minilateral arrangements replacing summit-level coordination on energy security and Middle East policy.