Iran Begins Dayslong Funeral for Supreme Leader Khamenei After Israeli Airstrike

What Happens Next

• →Iran's succession process triggers factional competition between the IRGC, senior clerics, and the Assembly of Experts, fragmenting command authority and slowing coordinated military responses during active conflict with Israel.
• →Direct Iran-Israel military conflict disrupts tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and raises insurance premiums on Persian Gulf shipping, driving Brent crude prices sharply higher and straining import-dependent economies in Europe and Asia.
• →Gulf Arab states—particularly Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar—accelerate weapons procurement and activate bilateral security agreements with the US and other partners, diverting fiscal resources from economic diversification programs.

Near-term: Brent crude surges past $120/barrel within weeks as war-risk premiums spike on Gulf shipping routes; global equity indices in energy-importing economies decline 5-8% on supply disruption fears. Long-term: Sustained insecurity in the Persian Gulf accelerates capital flows into non-Middle Eastern energy infrastructure—US LNG export capacity, West African offshore projects, and renewable buildouts in Europe and Asia—permanently reducing the Gulf's share of global energy investment.