US Launches Seventh Consecutive Night of Strikes on Iran as Hormuz Conflict Escalates

What Happens Next

• →Brent crude rises to $120-$150/barrel range within weeks as sustained combat operations near the Strait of Hormuz threaten physical disruption to roughly 20% of global oil transit, triggering panic buying and inventory hoarding by major importers.
• →Tehran's accusations of US strikes on civilian infrastructure generate diplomatic friction at the UN Security Council and provide rhetorical leverage for non-aligned states to oppose or withhold support for US operations, complicating coalition-building.
• →Global shipping firms reroute tanker traffic around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-15 days of transit time for Gulf-origin crude destined for Europe and increasing per-barrel shipping costs by $2-$4, compounding energy price inflation.
• →Asian economies heavily dependent on Gulf crude — particularly India, Japan, and South Korea — activate strategic petroleum reserves and accelerate emergency procurement agreements with non-Gulf suppliers such as the US, Brazil, and West Africa.

Near-term: Within 1-3 months, Brent crude sustains prices above $130/barrel, central banks in import-dependent economies face pressure to pause rate cuts or tighten policy to contain energy-driven inflation. Long-term: Over 2-5 years, Gulf-dependent economies accelerate investment in alternative energy supply chains and domestic refining capacity, structurally reducing the Strait of Hormuz's share of global oil transit below 15%.