US and Iran Exchange Military Strikes as Trump Declares Ceasefire Over

What Happens Next

• →Brent crude prices surge 15-25% within weeks as tanker operators pause or limit transits through the Strait of Hormuz, tightening short-term global supply.
• →War-risk insurance premiums for Strait of Hormuz transits increase 5-10x, adding $1-3 per barrel equivalent in shipping costs and compressing refinery margins downstream.
• →Bahrain and Kuwait face domestic political backlash — parliamentary motions to review basing agreements, public protests, and quiet diplomatic requests to limit offensive operations launched from their territory.
• →Russia captures increased European and Asian market share for crude and LNG as buyers actively redirect contracts away from Gulf-origin cargoes to reduce exposure to transit disruption.

Near-term: Brent crude rises 15-25% and spot LNG prices in Asia follow upward as physical cargoes through the Strait slow or reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 2-3 weeks of transit time. Long-term: Sustained Hormuz risk premium accelerates capital allocation toward non-Middle Eastern oil and gas projects (Guyana, Brazil pre-salt, US Gulf of Mexico) and renewables, structurally reducing OPEC's pricing leverage by 2027-2029.