US Extends Military Strikes Against Iranian Targets Near Strait of Hormuz

What Happens Next

• →War-risk insurance premiums for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz rise 30-50%, increasing delivered crude costs for Asian importers (Japan, South Korea, India) even absent a physical supply disruption.
• →Gulf states accelerate bilateral security pacts with non-US partners — particularly France and the UK — to hedge against perceived US escalation cycles, fragmenting the existing US-led regional security architecture.
• →Iran redirects resources toward asymmetric deterrence capabilities, including fast-attack craft and anti-ship missile deployments along its coastline, raising the threshold for future de-escalation and embedding a permanent escalatory risk into Hormuz transit.

Near-term: Marine insurance underwriters reprice Strait of Hormuz transit risk within weeks, adding $1-3 per barrel equivalent to shipping costs and prompting Asian refiners to draw down strategic reserves or seek alternative suppliers. Long-term: Sustained US-Iran military friction entrenches Iran's pivot away from JCPOA-style frameworks, accelerating uranium enrichment toward weapons-grade thresholds and triggering a regional proliferation dynamic involving Saudi Arabia and Turkey.