US Military Ends Anti-ISIS Operation in Iraq After 12 Years

What Happens Next

• →Iran accelerates integration of Iraqi militia networks into formal Iraqi security structures, expanding Tehran's operational control over Iraqi border regions and supply corridors to Syria and Lebanon.
• →ISIS remnants and splinter cells exploit reduced intelligence and surveillance capabilities in Anbar and Nineveh provinces, increasing attack frequency against Iraqi security forces within months of withdrawal.
• →Oil futures for Basra crude see a 3-8% risk premium as traders price in uncertainty over production continuity in southern Iraqi fields, particularly those near Iranian-influenced militia zones.
• →US defense contractors with Iraq-based logistics and maintenance contracts—notably KBR, Lockheed Martin's rotary support divisions, and L3Harris—redirect personnel and assets toward Indo-Pacific and Eastern European theater buildups, accelerating Pentagon pivot timelines.

Near-term: Iran-aligned Popular Mobilization Forces consolidate control over key Iraqi security ministries and border crossings within 1-3 months, with Baghdad's new government offering minimal resistance to avoid internal confrontation. Long-term: Iraq's political system fragments further along sectarian and ethnic lines over 2-5 years, with southern Shia-majority provinces deepening economic and security ties with Iran while the Kurdistan Region pursues greater de facto autonomy and independent foreign partnerships.