Trump Signs Interim Deal to End U.S.-Iran War and Reopen Strait of Hormuz

What Happens Next

• →Brent crude drops 10-15% within weeks as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, unwinding the war-driven risk premium built into global oil prices since February.
• →Shipping and marine insurance rates for Persian Gulf transit fall sharply, reducing freight costs for Gulf state oil exporters and restoring pre-war tanker routing through Hormuz.
• →The interim deal's unfinalized status and Trump's explicit threat to resume bombing create a fragile ceasefire; energy traders and governments will maintain elevated strategic petroleum reserves and hedging positions against renewed hostilities.
• →Parallel nuclear negotiations gain urgency as both sides seek to lock in broader terms before the interim framework collapses, with Iran leveraging the Hormuz reopening as a demonstrated concession to extract sanctions relief.

Near-term: Oil prices decline 10-15% and shipping insurance rates normalize within 1-3 months as Hormuz traffic resumes, though volatility persists given the deal's unfinalized terms and explicit U.S. threat of resumed strikes. Long-term: Iran accelerates economic and military partnerships with China and Russia over 2-5 years to reduce vulnerability to unilateral U.S. coercion, restructuring Persian Gulf security architecture away from sole U.S. dominance.