Trump Waives Sanctions on Russian Energy Exports Under Graham Act

What Happens Next

• →Indian and Chinese refiners increase Russian crude purchases, narrowing the discount on Urals-grade crude and reducing landed energy costs for both countries by an estimated 3-8% relative to pre-waiver pricing.
• →Russia's federal budget receives a revenue uplift from higher export volumes, reducing near-term pressure on its fiscal deficit and slowing ruble depreciation.
• →The temporary and revocable nature of the waiver drives Indian and Chinese buyers toward short-duration spot contracts rather than long-term supply agreements with Russian producers, limiting Russia's ability to lock in stable demand.
• →European and Middle Eastern energy exporters face margin compression in Asian markets as re-entry of unsanctioned Russian barrels intensifies competition for Indian and Chinese import demand.

Near-term: Within 1-3 months, Indian and Chinese refiners ramp up Russian crude imports, compressing Asian benchmark crude spreads and reducing energy input costs for downstream industries in both countries. Long-term: Over 2-5 years, India and China build out dedicated infrastructure (port terminals, pipeline capacity, payment mechanisms) for Russian energy trade, creating structural dependencies that persist regardless of future US sanctions reimposition.