US Launches Multiple Rounds of Strikes on Iran After Drone Attacks on Shipping

What Happens Next

• →Brent crude prices rise 10-20% within weeks as insurers reprice war-risk premiums for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil flows.
• →Oil-importing economies in South and Southeast Asia—India, Japan, South Korea—face accelerated inflation in fuel and freight costs, pressuring central banks to delay anticipated rate cuts.
• →The collapse of the interim peace framework forces European mediators, particularly France, to reset diplomatic channels, delaying any comprehensive US-Iran agreement by months at minimum.
• →Gulf Cooperation Council states and the US Navy expand forward-deployed assets in the Persian Gulf, increasing the probability of accidental escalation and drawing resources from other theaters such as the Indo-Pacific.

Near-term: Within 1-3 months, Brent crude trades 15-25% above pre-strike levels as marine insurers impose war-risk surcharges on Strait of Hormuz transits, and shipping companies reroute cargoes around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days to Europe-Asia voyages. Long-term: Over 2-5 years, repeated disruption risk in the Strait of Hormuz accelerates investment in alternative energy infrastructure and pipeline bypass routes (e.g., UAE East Coast terminals), while US-Iran strategic rivalry entrenches new alliance configurations, with Gulf states deepening security integration with Washington and Iran solidifying ties with Russia and China.