Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan Set to Sign Joint Defence Pact in Jeddah

What Happens Next

• →Turkey accelerates defence export agreements with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, leveraging the pact framework to expand sales of Bayraktar drones and armored vehicles, increasing Turkish defence export revenues by 10-15% within a year.
• →Iran intensifies defence cooperation with Russia and China — including expedited delivery of Su-35 fighters and expanded naval exercises — framing the trilateral pact as a hostile encirclement.
• →Pakistan secures $3-5 billion in new Saudi financial support or deferred oil payment arrangements as a side benefit of deepened defence ties, easing its balance-of-payments crisis.
• →The U.S. Department of Defense initiates a formal review of Gulf basing arrangements and bilateral defence agreements with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to assess whether the trilateral pact dilutes American leverage in the region.

Near-term: Within 1-3 months, the three nations establish a joint military coordination cell, likely in Jeddah, and begin planning inaugural trilateral naval or air exercises in the Gulf of Oman. Long-term: Over 2-5 years, the trilateral bloc emerges as an autonomous regional security architecture outside U.S.-led frameworks, reducing American influence over Gulf security decisions and forcing Washington to offer enhanced bilateral incentives to retain access agreements.