Germany's Merz Says Iran Is 'Humiliating' the US in Ongoing War

What Happens Next

• →European NATO members, following Merz's lead, publicly condition or withhold support for US military operations against Iran, fragmenting alliance coordination on Middle East policy within weeks.
• →Iran uses the visible NATO fracture and the Pakistan negotiation venue as diplomatic leverage to extract concessions — such as sanctions relief or territorial buffer guarantees — in ceasefire talks, strengthening Tehran's negotiating position.
• →Congressional opposition coalitions gain momentum using Merz's 'quagmire' framing as external validation, accelerating legislative efforts to impose war authorization constraints or funding conditions on the administration.

Near-term: European NATO governments begin issuing public statements distancing from the US Iran campaign, and bilateral defense cooperation on Middle East operations stalls as capitals recalibrate political risk. Long-term: US influence over Middle Eastern and transatlantic security arrangements structurally erodes as regional actors — particularly Gulf states — hedge by deepening security ties with China and the EU, while NATO evolves toward a more multipolar decision-making model.