Archive

Friday, March 27, 2026

Week 13 - 2026

A single geopolitical shock exposed the fragility underpinning every assumption about the path of monetary policy, equity valuations, and labor market resilience. Energy costs surged on Middle Eastern escalation, and the reverberations hit bond markets, equity positioning, and hiring outlooks simultaneously. The dominant tension is not the commodity price itself but the structural fracture it revealed: a global energy market splitting along jurisdictional lines, transmitting asymmetric costs through an economy that had been quietly counting on continued easing. That bet is now in jeopardy, if not entirely off the board, adding yet another anchor around the Trump administrations unfinished stumbling blocks towards clearer skies ahead.

Friday, March 20, 2026

Week 12 - 2026

Markets spent the week pretending the most important thing was the least important thing. The Fed held steady and nobody seemed too bothered, because the real repricing was happening elsewhere, in commodities and in the narrowing internals that index levels are still papering over. Surface calm, subsurface rotation. Equity breadth deteriorated while energy futures absorbed the week's actual conviction. The frame for everything that follows is simple: the headline number and the underlying market are telling different stories, and only one of them is right.

Saturday, March 14, 2026

Week 11 - 2026

Capital is re-pricing for a world where safety and growth no longer live in the same trading environment. The yield curve is steepening for the wrong reasons, tech is underperforming on rotation and not fundamentals, and hard assets are catching a bid that looks less like speculation and more like conviction. None of these moves are extreme in isolation though. Together they describe a market that is quietly repositioning around a single thesis: the old correlations are breaking, and the new ones are not yet legible. That is the week.