Mojtaba Khamenei Absent as Iran Mourns at Ali Khamenei's Funeral

What Happens Next

• →IRGC hardliners and pragmatist factions within Iran's clerical establishment exploit Mojtaba's physical incapacitation to consolidate operational control, with the IRGC likely emerging as the dominant decision-making body in the interim.
• →Funeral rhetoric targeting the US and Israel, combined with leaderless command ambiguity, increases the probability of unauthorized or escalatory IRGC naval actions in the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil futures up 10-15% and raising shipping insurance premiums for Persian Gulf routes.
• →Hezbollah, Houthi, and Iraqi militia leaders face uncertainty over command authority and resource flows from Tehran, slowing coordinated proxy operations across the region as these groups hedge against a potential leadership change.

Near-term: IRGC consolidates executive authority within 1-3 months, sidelining civilian government figures; Mojtaba either resurfaces with diminished authority or is replaced by an IRGC-aligned successor. Long-term: Iran's theocratic governance model fractures as the hereditary succession precedent set by Mojtaba's appointment is contested, producing a more militarized state apparatus with weaker clerical oversight and altered relationships with Russia and China.