Germany Prefers Strengthened China Ties Amid EU Push for Tougher Trade Stance

What Happens Next

• →Germany's bilateral engagement with Beijing undermines EU efforts to present a unified front on trade imbalances, giving China leverage to negotiate bilaterally with individual member states and fragment collective European bargaining power.
• →Franco-German tensions intensify as France—Airbus's home base—faces direct Chinese pressure on COMAC certifications while Germany pursues deeper industrial ties, straining the core EU policy axis on China strategy.
• →China's delay of Airbus deliveries strengthens COMAC's negotiating position for EU certification, as European aviation authorities face political pressure to accelerate the process to restore delivery schedules worth billions in backlog revenue.
• →EU institutions accelerate critical raw materials and supply chain de-risking legislation, using Germany's bilateral outreach as evidence that voluntary coordination is insufficient to manage China dependency.

Near-term: Franco-German friction over China policy surfaces publicly within EU trade council meetings, stalling coordinated EU responses to Chinese overcapacity complaints filed at the WTO. Long-term: The EU establishes mandatory supply chain diversification requirements for critical industries, reducing single-country import dependency thresholds, with China-exposed sectors facing the strictest compliance timelines.