US-Iran War Closes Strait of Hormuz, Oil Surges as Asian Stocks Retreat From Record

What Happens Next

• →With Brent crude trading between $90 and $150 depending on escalation trajectory, consumer goods companies pass through higher input costs, adding 1-3 percentage points to headline CPI in major oil-importing economies.
• →Asian manufacturers, particularly in energy-intensive sectors such as petrochemicals, steel, and semiconductors, absorb sharply higher feedstock and electricity costs, compressing margins and prompting production shifts toward facilities outside the disruption zone.
• →Global shipping operators reroute tanker traffic around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days to Europe- and Asia-bound deliveries, increasing freight rates and tightening refined-product inventories worldwide.
• →Major integrated oil companies — Shell among them — report windfall profits, intensifying political pressure in the US and EU for excess-profit levies or export restrictions on refined products.

Near-term: Petrol and diesel pump prices in major importing nations rise 25-40% within weeks; strategic petroleum reserve drawdowns begin in the US, Japan, and South Korea to stabilize spot markets. Long-term: Governments in Asia and Europe structurally diversify energy supply chains — accelerating LNG terminal construction, nuclear restarts, and renewable capacity buildouts — permanently reducing the share of Persian Gulf crude in their energy mix.